Q4 '25 Earnings Preview

Peraso (PRSO) reports Q4 ’25 results on Monday, March 16, after the market closes. We remain comfortable with our estimates for the quarter, which are largely in line with consensus and management’s guidance. On the top line, we expect strong Y/Y growth in mmWave products driven by sales to wireless network equipment manufacturers. Additionally, final shipments against an unexpected end-of-life (EOL) memory IC order secured in Q3 should also bolster both revenue and gross margin. As for the outlook, our Q1 projections sit slightly below consensus. Given reports of memory chip shortages and associated pricing increases, we suspect OEM production schedules may be impacted in the near-term as vendors look to secure inventory for 2026 and beyond. In this regard, we remain wary of potential downside to both the Street’s and our Q1 estimates. That said, we think the outlook for growth this year remains positive, albeit likely weighted towards the back half when new customers such as InTACT, an Israeli defense contractor that has selected Peraso’s 60 GHz mmWave technology for use in a new drone identification friend or foe system, begin to ramp. Apart from the results and guidance, we will also be attuned to any updates on the company’s ongoing review of strategic alternatives. Our price target remains $2.50 based on a FY ’26 EV/Sales multiple of 2x. 

Exhibit I: Our Estimates Versus Consensus

Sources: K. Liu & Company LLC; FactSet Estimates

For Q4, our estimates include revenue of $3.0 million, adjusted EBITDA of $(1.4) million and non-GAAP EPS of $(0.16), all of which are generally consistent with consensus of $3.0 million, $(1.4) million and $(0.18), respectively. Management’s guidance calls for revenue of $2.8-$3.1 million. We expect gross margin to decline sequentially as mmWave products sold in the prior quarter benefited from prior write-downs of the associated inventory, a dynamic that we do not expect to recur in Q4. Regardless, gross margin should remain relatively strong due to the final shipments of high margin EOL memory IC products. We assume cash operating expenses remain relatively flattish on a sequential basis and despite the modest adjusted EBITDA loss projected for the quarter, we surmise cash on the balance sheet likely increased as the company leveraged its existing ATM offering to ensure sufficient liquidity through the first half of FY ’26.

Our report with model and disclosures is available here.

Disclosure(s):

K. Liu & Company LLC (“the firm”) receives or intends to seek compensation from the companies covered in its research reports. The firm has received compensation from Peraso Inc. (PRSO) in the past 12 months for “Sponsored Research.”

Sponsored Research produced by the firm is paid for by the subject company in the form of an initial retainer and a recurring monthly fee. The analysis and recommendations in our Sponsored Research reports are derived from the same process and methodologies utilized in all of our research reports whether sponsored or not. The subject company does not review any aspect of our Sponsored Research reports prior to publication.