Q3 '25 Earnings Preview

DHI Group, Inc. (DHX) reports Q3 ’25 results on Monday, November 10, after the market closes. Recall that we recently reduced our near-term bookings assumptions for ClearanceJobs to reflect the potential fallout from the government shutdown. We therefore refer readers to our note, “LD Micro Meeting Takeaways,” for a more comprehensive discussion of how we think DHI Group’s Dice and ClearanceJobs platforms will fare over the remainder of this year and next. The quick take is we believe that the rate of decline continues to moderate at Dice, consistent with broader IT staffing trends, while growth at ClearanceJobs stalls until the government reopens, which we currently assume will occur at some point in Q4. We expect a myriad of questions on the upcoming earnings call around exactly what DHI Group has seen thus far with respect to ClearanceJobs renewals and opportunities in flight. As much of the revenue recognized in any given year arises from bookings already in hand at the start, the implications for this year are relatively limited but have much more significance for next year. While we acknowledge that there is still a high degree of uncertainty at present, we think the pendulum has swung too far towards fear, setting the stage for outsized gains in shares of DHX once the government reopens. Considering the authorization of a new $5 million stock repurchase program yesterday, we surmise the company’s Board and management agree. Our price target remains $5.00 based on a FY ’25 EV/Sales multiple of 2x. 

Exhibit I: Our Estimates Versus Consensus

Sources: K. Liu & Company LLC; FactSet Estimates

Our Q3 estimates include revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $31.0 million and $9.0 million, respectively, both of which are generally in line with consensus. By segment, we project Dice revenue of $18.1 million (-17.4% Y/Y) and ClearanceJobs revenue of $12.9 million (-3.9% Y/Y). We assume a 9% Y/Y decline in bookings, reflecting a 12% Y/Y decline at Dice and a 4% decline at ClearanceJobs. As for guidance, we think the low-end of management’s prior FY ’25 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges remain achievable despite the external headwinds. That said, we would not be surprised to see the company reset expectations lower given the lack of visibility into a resolution of the ongoing shutdown and a stock price that seemingly assumes a cut is forthcoming.

Our report with model and disclosures is available here.

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